Last week it was announced that 2010 will see another  marine manpower survey undertaken by the International Shipping Federation and BIMCO.

At five year intervals since 1990, the partners have shone a light on the supply and demand situation for the benefit of all. Because it matters that the growth of the world fleet is in some way managed in harmony with the provision of sufficient people to drive all these ships.

Like it or not, seafaring skill is a global commodity, and it is important to know what is what, and who is where. Seafarers are not the flexible friends they were in the past, but becoming as specialised as their ships are, and the provision of their skills are as important as the ships themselves.

And it is arguably easier, and lot quicker to build a ship than it is to recruit, train and retain the specialists who will operate it. So the worldwide manpower picture is important, if we are ever to change from our old habits of merely poaching talent when we need it, from somebody who has taken the trouble to equip themselves with the specialists they need.

Since 1990, the main thrust of the IFF-BIMCO reports, carefully collated by Warwick University, has been one of plenty of ratings but growing shortages of officers. The 2005 survey suggested that there could be 27,000 officers short by 2015, and urged increased training. Well and good, but in a shipping world that is so lean and mean that shipbuilders supply ships without a single spare bed, where are a couple of cadets going to sleep?

There will be those looking at the present economic condition of the industry and may be tempted to “file and forget” worried questions from HR about impending shortages. Certainly the upcoming survey, which will produce a report at the end of next year, will be conducted against a good deal of unanticipated changes, taking in layups and slow-steaming, order cancellations and postponements, lots of new tonnage and huge scrapyard activity.

But the “fundamentals” , as analysts like to say, will remain intact, in an ageing workforce of senior officers, a struggle to persuade people to go to sea, and what’s more, to remain there for a decent period. This research by the partners, aided this time around with an Asian eye from Dalian Maritime University, will be vital for our maritime future, even if we don’t like what it tells us.

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